CRA International, Inc. logo CRAI - CRA International, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $194.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $194.00
LOW: $194.00
MEDIAN: $194.00
CONSENSUS: $194.00
UPSIDE: 32.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 573.9% above fair value
Current Price $146.66
Bear Case $14.30 90.2% downside ($14.30 - $146.66) / $146.66 = -90.2% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $21.76 85.2% downside ($21.76 - $146.66) / $146.66 = -85.2% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $28.59 80.5% downside ($28.59 - $146.66) / $146.66 = -80.5% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 74.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $21.76 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions