CRA International, Inc. logo CRAI - CRA International, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $194.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $194.00
LOW: $194.00
MEDIAN: $194.00
CONSENSUS: $194.00
DOWNSIDE: 3.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 457.5% above fair value
Current Price $200.14
Bear Case $24.70 87.7% downside ($24.70 - $200.14) / $200.14 = -87.7% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $35.90 82.1% downside ($35.90 - $200.14) / $200.14 = -82.1% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $46.33 76.8% downside ($46.33 - $200.14) / $200.14 = -76.8% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 75.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 26.8% vs our 8.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $35.90 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions