CRA International, Inc. logo CRAI - CRA International, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $194.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $194.00
LOW: $194.00
MEDIAN: $194.00
CONSENSUS: $194.00
UPSIDE: 14.27%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 680.1% above fair value
Current Price $169.77
Bear Case $14.30 91.6% downside ($14.30 - $169.77) / $169.77 = -91.6% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $21.76 87.2% downside ($21.76 - $169.77) / $169.77 = -87.2% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $28.59 83.2% downside ($28.59 - $169.77) / $169.77 = -83.2% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 85.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 28.3% vs our 7.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $21.76 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions