Crane Company logo CR - Crane Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $222.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $238.00
LOW: $215.00
MEDIAN: $215.00
CONSENSUS: $222.67
UPSIDE: 23.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 16.2% above fair value
Current Price $179.75
Bear Case $123.70 31.2% downside ($123.70 - $179.75) / $179.75 = -31.2% $6.46 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $154.63 14.0% downside ($154.63 - $179.75) / $179.75 = -14.0% $6.46 × 20x P/E
Bull Case $185.56 3.2% upside ($185.56 - $179.75) / $179.75 = 3.2% $6.46 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

20.4x
6.46$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $222.67 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $154.63 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $222.67 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples