Crane Company logo CR - Crane Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $246.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $253.00
LOW: $242.00
MEDIAN: $245.00
CONSENSUS: $246.67
UPSIDE: 17.87%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 63.6% above fair value
Current Price $209.28
Bear Case $102.31 51.1% downside ($102.31 - $209.28) / $209.28 = -51.1% $6.26 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $127.89 38.9% downside ($127.89 - $209.28) / $209.28 = -38.9% $6.26 × 20x P/E
Bull Case $153.47 26.7% downside ($153.47 - $209.28) / $209.28 = -26.7% $6.26 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

20.4x
6.26$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 33.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 20x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.26, the base-case value is $127.89 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (28 analysts) $246.67
Analyst Range $242.00 – $253.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 48%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $246.67 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples