Crane Company logo CR - Crane Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $226.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $238.00
LOW: $215.00
MEDIAN: $226.50
CONSENSUS: $226.50
UPSIDE: 3.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 40.8% above fair value
Current Price $219.07
Bear Case $124.47 43.2% downside ($124.47 - $219.07) / $219.07 = -43.2% $6.46 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $155.59 29.0% downside ($155.59 - $219.07) / $219.07 = -29.0% $6.46 × 20x P/E
Bull Case $186.70 14.8% downside ($186.70 - $219.07) / $219.07 = -14.8% $6.46 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

20.4x
6.46$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 33.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $226.50 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $155.59 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $226.50 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples