Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. logo CQP - Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Sell DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 5
SELL 10
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $69.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $75.00
LOW: $63.00
MEDIAN: $69.00
CONSENSUS: $69.00
UPSIDE: 6.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 35.3% below fair value
Current Price $64.56
Bear Case $79.80 23.6% upside ($79.80 - $64.56) / $64.56 = 23.6% $6.17 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $99.75 54.5% upside ($99.75 - $64.56) / $64.56 = 54.5% $6.17 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $119.70 85.4% upside ($119.70 - $64.56) / $64.56 = 85.4% $6.17 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.8x
6.17$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $99.75 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $47.96 (below our primary estimate by 56%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $69.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 59% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples