CQP - Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Sell
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$75.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$75.00
LOW:
$75.00
MEDIAN:
$75.00
CONSENSUS:
$75.00
UPSIDE:
18.32%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
17.8x
6.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.3x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $101.25 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $47.96 (below our primary estimate by 56%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $75.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 47% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples