Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. logo CPRX - Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $32.00
CONSENSUS: $32.00
UPSIDE: 2.37%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 33.5% below fair value
Current Price $31.26
Bear Case $32.45 3.8% upside ($32.45 - $31.26) / $31.26 = 3.8% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $47.03 50.4% upside ($47.03 - $31.26) / $31.26 = 50.4% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $62.99 101.5% upside ($62.99 - $31.26) / $31.26 = 101.5% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 16.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $47.03 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 63% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions