Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. logo CPRX - Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $31.50
MEDIAN: $31.75
CONSENSUS: $31.75
UPSIDE: 0.89%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 38.1% below fair value
Current Price $31.47
Bear Case $33.65 6.9% upside ($33.65 - $31.47) / $31.47 = 6.9% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $50.88 61.7% upside ($50.88 - $31.47) / $31.47 = 61.7% 16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $70.40 123.7% upside ($70.40 - $31.47) / $31.47 = 123.7% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (16% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 16.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 6.4% vs our 15.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.75 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $50.88 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $31.75 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 80% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions