Copart, Inc. logo CPRT - Copart, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 9
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $35.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $35.00
CONSENSUS: $35.00
UPSIDE: 6.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 31.8% above fair value
Current Price $32.99
Bear Case $22.10 33.0% downside ($22.10 - $32.99) / $32.99 = -33.0% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $25.03 24.1% downside ($25.03 - $32.99) / $32.99 = -24.1% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $27.58 16.4% downside ($27.58 - $32.99) / $32.99 = -16.4% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 21.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.0% vs our 5.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $25.03 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $35.00
Analyst Range $25.00 – $45.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 28%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions