CPRT - Copart, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$46.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$48.00
LOW:
$45.00
MEDIAN:
$46.50
CONSENSUS:
$46.50
UPSIDE:
67.74%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
85% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
5.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
17.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.1%
vs our 5.4% base
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.50 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $30.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $46.50 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions