Copart, Inc. logo CPRT - Copart, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 9
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $39.00
CONSENSUS: $37.33
UPSIDE: 41.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 5.0% above fair value
Current Price $26.37
Bear Case $22.20 15.8% downside ($22.20 - $26.37) / $26.37 = -15.8% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $25.11 4.8% downside ($25.11 - $26.37) / $26.37 = -4.8% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $27.64 4.8% upside ($27.64 - $26.37) / $26.37 = 4.8% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 16.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 6.1% vs our 5.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $25.11 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $37.33
Analyst Range $25.00 – $45.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 33%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $37.33 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions