Copart, Inc. logo CPRT - Copart, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $46.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $48.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $46.50
CONSENSUS: $46.50
UPSIDE: 37.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.3% above fair value
Current Price $33.79
Bear Case $26.67 21.1% downside ($26.67 - $33.79) / $33.79 = -21.1% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $31.48 6.8% downside ($31.48 - $33.79) / $33.79 = -6.8% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $35.85 6.1% upside ($35.85 - $33.79) / $33.79 = 6.1% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 23.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.50 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.48 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $46.50 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions