Copart, Inc. logo CPRT - Copart, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 9
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $46.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $48.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $46.50
CONSENSUS: $46.50
UPSIDE: 67.74%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.8% below fair value
Current Price $27.72
Bear Case $26.84 3.2% downside ($26.84 - $27.72) / $27.72 = -3.2% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $30.40 9.7% upside ($30.40 - $27.72) / $27.72 = 9.7% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $33.49 20.8% upside ($33.49 - $27.72) / $27.72 = 20.8% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 17.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 7.1% vs our 5.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.50 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $30.40 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $46.50 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions