Capri Holdings Limited logo CPRI - Capri Holdings Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 28
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $21.50
CONSENSUS: $22.50
UPSIDE: 37.83%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current FCF × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 107.3% above fair value
Current Price $16.32
Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $16.32) / $16.32 = -100.0% FCF continues to decline, 4x multiple
Fair Value $7.87 51.8% downside ($7.87 - $16.32) / $16.32 = -51.8% Current FCF stabilizes, 6x multiple
Bull Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $16.32) / $16.32 = -100.0% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 8x

Adjust Assumptions

6.0x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 225.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current FCF × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.50 from 54 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.87 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($11.19) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $22.50 (from 54 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case