Capri Holdings Limited logo CPRI - Capri Holdings Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 28
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $20.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $20.00
CONSENSUS: $20.57
UPSIDE: 61.84%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.2% above fair value
Current Price $12.71
Bear Case $10.78 15.2% downside ($10.78 - $12.71) / $12.71 = -15.2% $0.77 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $12.32 3.1% downside ($12.32 - $12.71) / $12.71 = -3.1% $0.77 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $13.86 9.0% upside ($13.86 - $12.71) / $12.71 = 9.0% $0.77 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
0.77$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.77, the base-case value is $12.32 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (54 analysts) $20.57
Analyst Range $16.00 – $25.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 40%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $20.57 (from 54 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 55% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples