Chesapeake Utilities Corporation logo CPK - Chesapeake Utilities Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $142.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $142.00
LOW: $142.00
MEDIAN: $142.00
CONSENSUS: $142.00
UPSIDE: 6.12%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 26.2% above fair value
Current Price $133.81
Bear Case $92.76 30.7% downside ($92.76 - $133.81) / $133.81 = -30.7% $6.01 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $106.02 20.8% downside ($106.02 - $133.81) / $133.81 = -20.8% $6.01 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $119.26 10.9% downside ($119.26 - $133.81) / $133.81 = -10.9% $6.01 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.1x
6.01$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $142.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $106.02 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $353.28 (above our primary estimate by 264%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $142.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples