Costco Wholesale Corporation logo COST - Costco Wholesale Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 38
HOLD 19
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,102.23 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,275.00
LOW: $1,000.00
MEDIAN: $1,100.00
CONSENSUS: $1,102.23
UPSIDE: 19.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 10.2% above fair value
Current Price $925.16
Bear Case $691.22 25.3% downside ($691.22 - $925.16) / $925.16 = -25.3% $18.21 × 32x P/E
Fair Value $839.34 9.3% downside ($839.34 - $925.16) / $925.16 = -9.3% $18.21 × 38x P/E
Bull Case $987.46 6.7% upside ($987.46 - $925.16) / $925.16 = 6.7% $18.21 × 45x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

38.3x
18.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (38x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 50.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1102.23 from 58 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $839.34 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $1102.23 (from 58 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples