Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated logo CORT - Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 9
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $117.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $165.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $135.00
CONSENSUS: $117.60
UPSIDE: 4.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 95.6% above fair value
Current Price $112.80
Bear Case $33.54 70.3% downside ($33.54 - $112.80) / $112.80 = -70.3% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $57.66 48.9% downside ($57.66 - $112.80) / $112.80 = -48.9% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $88.27 21.8% downside ($88.27 - $112.80) / $112.80 = -21.8% 27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 47%
Implied Market Multiple 150.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 36.1% vs our 20.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $117.60 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.66 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 85% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $117.60 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions