Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated logo CORT - Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 10
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $83.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $135.00
LOW: $30.00
MEDIAN: $91.50
CONSENSUS: $83.00
UPSIDE: 3.87%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 62.4% above fair value
Current Price $79.91
Bear Case $28.62 64.2% downside ($28.62 - $79.91) / $79.91 = -64.2% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $49.20 38.4% downside ($49.20 - $79.91) / $79.91 = -38.4% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $75.32 5.7% downside ($75.32 - $79.91) / $79.91 = -5.7% 27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 47%
Implied Market Multiple 104.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $83.00 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.20 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 85% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $83.00 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions