Cencora, Inc. logo COR - Cencora, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 33
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $358.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $430.00
LOW: $330.00
MEDIAN: $350.00
CONSENSUS: $358.14
UPSIDE: 8.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 140.0% above fair value
Current Price $330.95
Bear Case $110.29 66.7% downside ($110.29 - $330.95) / $330.95 = -66.7% $7.96 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $137.87 58.3% downside ($137.87 - $330.95) / $330.95 = -58.3% $7.96 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $165.44 50.0% downside ($165.44 - $330.95) / $330.95 = -50.0% $7.96 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.3x
7.96$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 41.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.96, the base-case value is $137.87 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (46 analysts) $358.14
Analyst Range $330.00 – $430.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 62%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $358.14 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples