Rockwell Collins, Inc. logo COL - Rockwell Collins, Inc.

Inactive Ticker COL is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 70% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 67.9% above fair value
Current Price $141.04
Bear Case $66.30 53.0% downside ($66.30 - $141.04) / $141.04 = -53.0% $4.42 × 18x + net cash
Fair Value $83.98 40.5% downside ($83.98 - $141.04) / $141.04 = -40.5% $4.42 × 22x + net cash
Bull Case $101.66 27.9% downside ($101.66 - $141.04) / $141.04 = -27.9% $4.42 × 26x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

22.0x
4.42$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($4.42)

Implied Market Multiple 31.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $4.42 at a 22x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $83.98 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing