Cohu, Inc. logo COHU - Cohu, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 1
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $49.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $53.50
CONSENSUS: $49.75
UPSIDE: 6.92%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 74.6% above fair value
Current Price $46.53
Bear Case $20.83 55.2% downside ($20.83 - $46.53) / $46.53 = -55.2% $1.14 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $26.65 42.7% downside ($26.65 - $46.53) / $46.53 = -42.7% $1.14 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $32.47 30.2% downside ($32.47 - $46.53) / $46.53 = -30.2% $1.14 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.14$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.14)

Implied Market Multiple 40.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $49.75 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.65 per share.

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 5.2x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $49.75 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing