COHU - Cohu, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$49.75
DETAILS
HIGH:
$60.00
LOW:
$32.00
MEDIAN:
$53.50
CONSENSUS:
$49.75
UPSIDE:
6.92%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80% confidence
Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
1.14$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.14)
Implied Market Multiple
40.8x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $49.75 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.65 per share.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 5.2x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $49.75 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing