CenterPoint Energy, Inc. logo CNP - CenterPoint Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $46.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $47.00
CONSENSUS: $46.57
UPSIDE: 9.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 34.0% above fair value
Current Price $42.72
Bear Case $27.90 34.7% downside ($27.90 - $42.72) / $42.72 = -34.7% $1.60 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $31.89 25.3% downside ($31.89 - $42.72) / $42.72 = -25.3% $1.60 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $35.88 16.0% downside ($35.88 - $42.72) / $42.72 = -16.0% $1.60 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.6$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.57 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.89 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $46.90 (above our primary estimate by 83%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $46.57 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples