CenterPoint Energy, Inc. logo CNP - CenterPoint Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $46.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $46.00
CONSENSUS: $46.00
UPSIDE: 15.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 55.0% above fair value
Current Price $39.67
Bear Case $22.40 43.5% downside ($22.40 - $39.67) / $39.67 = -43.5% $1.60 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $25.60 35.5% downside ($25.60 - $39.67) / $39.67 = -35.5% $1.60 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $28.80 27.4% downside ($28.80 - $39.67) / $39.67 = -27.4% $1.60 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.6$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.60, the base-case value is $25.60 per share. DDM cross-check: $46.90.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (31 analysts) $46.00
Analyst Range $40.00 – $50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 44%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $46.90 (above our primary estimate by 83%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $46.00 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples