CNOB - ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$34.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$34.00
LOW:
$34.00
MEDIAN:
$34.00
CONSENSUS:
$34.00
UPSIDE:
13.56%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
6.2%
10.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (6.2%) vs. cost of equity (10.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.16x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 6.2% vs. 10.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.36x on $25.72 tangible book, implying $23.54 per share. DDM cross-check: $17.38.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$34.00
Analyst Range
$34.00 – $34.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
31%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (6.2%) is below the minimum investors require (10.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $17.38 (26% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly