CONMED Corporation logo CNMD - CONMED Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 14
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $78.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $61.00
MEDIAN: $78.00
CONSENSUS: $78.00
UPSIDE: 109.51%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.6% below fair value
Current Price $37.23
Bear Case $42.92 15.3% upside ($42.92 - $37.23) / $37.23 = 15.3% $2.79 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $53.66 44.1% upside ($53.66 - $37.23) / $37.23 = 44.1% $2.79 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $64.38 72.9% upside ($64.38 - $37.23) / $37.23 = 72.9% $2.79 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.3x
2.79$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $78.00 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.66 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 85%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $78.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples