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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $39.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $37.50
CONSENSUS: $37.50
DOWNSIDE: 19.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 46.2% above fair value
Current Price $46.30
Bear Case $25.34 45.3% downside ($25.34 - $46.30) / $46.30 = -45.3% $1.94 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $31.67 31.6% downside ($31.67 - $46.30) / $46.30 = -31.6% $1.94 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $38.01 17.9% downside ($38.01 - $46.30) / $46.30 = -17.9% $1.94 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.3x
1.94$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.94, the base-case value is $31.67 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $37.50
Analyst Range $36.00 – $39.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 16%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples