CONMED Corporation logo CNMD - CONMED Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $39.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $37.50
CONSENSUS: $37.50
DOWNSIDE: 15.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.7% above fair value
Current Price $44.25
Bear Case $34.82 21.3% downside ($34.82 - $44.25) / $44.25 = -21.3% $2.79 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $43.53 1.6% downside ($43.53 - $44.25) / $44.25 = -1.6% $2.79 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $52.23 18.0% upside ($52.23 - $44.25) / $44.25 = 18.0% $2.79 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.3x
2.79$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.50 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.53 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 85%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples