Canadian Banc Corp. logo CNDCF - Canadian Banc Corp.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 87.4% below fair value
Current Price $11.00
Bear Case $61.25 456.8% upside ($61.25 - $11.00) / $11.00 = 456.8% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.21x TBV
Fair Value $87.50 695.4% upside ($87.50 - $11.00) / $11.00 = 695.4% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $113.74 934.0% upside ($113.74 - $11.00) / $11.00 = 934.0% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

33.1%
9.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (33.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.08x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 33.1% vs. 9.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $10.18 tangible book, implying $87.50 per share. DDM cross-check: $11.67.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $11.67 (87% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7253 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly