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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 17
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $80.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $83.00
LOW: $74.00
MEDIAN: $80.50
CONSENSUS: $80.00
UPSIDE: 6.21%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 18.5% above fair value
Current Price $75.32
Bear Case $55.59 26.2% downside ($55.59 - $75.32) / $75.32 = -26.2% $3.53 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $63.54 15.6% downside ($63.54 - $75.32) / $75.32 = -15.6% $3.53 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $71.48 5.1% downside ($71.48 - $75.32) / $75.32 = -5.1% $3.53 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.53$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $80.00 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $63.54 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $80.00 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples