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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 18
HOLD 12
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $80.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $83.00
LOW: $77.00
MEDIAN: $80.50
CONSENSUS: $80.50
UPSIDE: 8.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 17.0% above fair value
Current Price $74.53
Bear Case $55.73 25.2% downside ($55.73 - $74.53) / $74.53 = -25.2% $3.53 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $63.69 14.5% downside ($63.69 - $74.53) / $74.53 = -14.5% $3.53 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $71.65 3.9% downside ($71.65 - $74.53) / $74.53 = -3.9% $3.53 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.53$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $80.50 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $63.69 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $80.50 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples