Costamare Inc. logo CMRE - Costamare Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 6
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $13.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $14.00
LOW: $12.00
MEDIAN: $13.00
CONSENSUS: $13.00
DOWNSIDE: 20.83%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 89.9% below fair value
Current Price $16.42
Bear Case $80.51 390.3% upside ($80.51 - $16.42) / $16.42 = 390.3% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $161.96 886.4% upside ($161.96 - $16.42) / $16.42 = 886.4% 22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $268.93 1537.8% upside ($268.93 - $16.42) / $16.42 = 1537.8% 29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

21.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 47%
Implied Market Multiple 6.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $161.96 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $13.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 1432% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions