Cimpress plc logo CMPR - Cimpress plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $111.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $113.00
LOW: $110.00
MEDIAN: $111.50
CONSENSUS: $111.50
UPSIDE: 11.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 229.7% above fair value
Current Price $99.73
Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $99.73) / $99.73 = -100.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $30.25 69.7% downside ($30.25 - $99.73) / $99.73 = -69.7% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $74.35 25.4% downside ($74.35 - $99.73) / $99.73 = -25.4% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.6%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 38.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 19.8% vs our 8.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $111.50 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $30.25 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 394% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $111.50 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 91% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions