Cimpress plc logo CMPR - Cimpress plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $111.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $113.00
LOW: $110.00
MEDIAN: $111.50
CONSENSUS: $111.50
UPSIDE: 8.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Leveraged Infrastructure 80% confidence

Primary model: EV/EBITDA × Default Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 30.2% above fair value
Current Price $102.39
Bear Case $49.34 51.8% downside ($49.34 - $102.39) / $102.39 = -51.8% EBITDA $0B × 7.2x − $1B debt
Fair Value $78.64 23.2% downside ($78.64 - $102.39) / $102.39 = -23.2% EBITDA $0B × 9.0x − $1B debt
Bull Case $107.96 5.4% upside ($107.96 - $102.39) / $102.39 = 5.4% EBITDA $0B × 10.8x − $1B debt

Adjust Assumptions

9.0x

Key Value Driver

EV/EBITDA multiple (9.0x) vs. 4.2× leverage

Implied Market Multiple 11.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses EV/EBITDA × Default Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $111.50 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $78.64 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Debt is 4.2x annual operating profit. Because the company carries so much debt, even small shifts in business value cause big swings in the stock price.
ℹ We value this business based on total operating profit relative to total enterprise value (debt + equity). Profit-per-share metrics are unreliable when debt makes up most of the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $111.50 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Debt refinancing at higher rates compresses equity value quickly
  • EBITDA flatters — capex, interest, and taxes eat the cash flow
  • Cord-cutting and wireless substitution are structural headwinds for cable