AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies CompoSecure, Inc. as a Distressed or Transitioning business and values it using Current EPS × Depressed Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag CMPO as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is CompoSecure, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for CMPO comes from a Current EPS × Depressed Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Distressed or Transitioning classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value CMPO?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. CMPO was classified as Distressed or Transitioning and is valued using Current EPS × Depressed Multiple, built from CMPO's most recent reported fundamentals.

CMPO - CompoSecure, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $18.83 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 70% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 90.4% above fair value

Current Price $16.51

Bear Case $5.78 65.0% downside ($5.78 - $16.51) / $16.51 = -65.0% Same EPS, market stays skeptical at 5x

Fair Value $8.67 47.5% downside ($8.67 - $16.51) / $16.51 = -47.5% Same EPS, 8x depressed multiple

Bull Case $11.56 30.0% downside ($11.56 - $16.51) / $16.51 = -30.0% Same EPS, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

EPS Multiple

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 14.3x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Stock is 38% below 52-week high. Using current EPS at a 8x depressed multiple, base-case value is $8.67. Wide scenario range: $5.78–$11.56.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (10 analysts) $18.83

Analyst Range $9.00 – $25.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 54%

Warnings

⚠ Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.

⚠ A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.

ℹ The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $18.83 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case