AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag CMG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for CMG is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value CMG?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from CMG's most recent reported fundamentals.

CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $42.80 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 0.9% above fair value

Current Price $36.63

Bear Case $30.40 17.0% downside ($30.40 - $36.63) / $36.63 = -17.0% $1.14 × 24x P/E

Fair Value $36.32 0.8% downside ($36.32 - $36.63) / $36.63 = -0.8% $1.14 × 29x P/E

Bull Case $42.23 15.3% upside ($42.23 - $36.63) / $36.63 = 15.3% $1.14 × 33x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

28.8x

Adjusted EPS

1.14$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (29x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 32.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $42.80 from 67 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.32 per share.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples