AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag CMG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for CMG comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value CMG?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. CMG was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from CMG's most recent reported fundamentals.

CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $42.41 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 16.1% above fair value

Current Price $38.12

Bear Case $27.48 27.9% downside ($27.48 - $38.12) / $38.12 = -27.9% $1.14 × 24x P/E

Fair Value $32.83 13.9% downside ($32.83 - $38.12) / $38.12 = -13.9% $1.14 × 29x P/E

Bull Case $38.17 0.1% upside ($38.17 - $38.12) / $38.12 = 0.1% $1.14 × 33x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

28.8x

Adjusted EPS

1.14$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (29x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 33.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 29x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.14, the base-case value is $32.83 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (67 analysts) $42.41

Analyst Range $38.00 – $50.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 23%

Warnings

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples