CME Group Inc. logo CME - CME Group Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 13
HOLD 17
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $320.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $353.00
LOW: $302.00
MEDIAN: $313.00
CONSENSUS: $320.25
UPSIDE: 12.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.3% above fair value
Current Price $283.88
Bear Case $199.52 29.7% downside ($199.52 - $283.88) / $283.88 = -29.7% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $264.60 6.8% downside ($264.60 - $283.88) / $283.88 = -6.8% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $327.86 15.5% upside ($327.86 - $283.88) / $283.88 = 15.5% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 24.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $320.25 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $264.60 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions