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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 83.1% below fair value
Current Price $17.83
Bear Case $52.31 193.4% upside ($52.31 - $17.83) / $17.83 = 193.4% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $105.51 491.7% upside ($105.51 - $17.83) / $17.83 = 491.7% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $177.98 898.2% upside ($177.98 - $17.83) / $17.83 = 898.2% 31% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

23.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (24% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 48%
Implied Market Multiple 9.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 24% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $105.51 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions