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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 83.3% below fair value
Current Price $20.47
Bear Case $60.84 197.2% upside ($60.84 - $20.47) / $20.47 = 197.2% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $122.84 500.1% upside ($122.84 - $20.47) / $20.47 = 500.1% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $207.32 912.8% upside ($207.32 - $20.47) / $20.47 = 912.8% 31% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

23.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (24% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 48%
Implied Market Multiple 9.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) -1.1% vs our 23.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 24% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $122.84 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions