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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 81.0% below fair value
Current Price $20.02
Bear Case $52.18 160.7% upside ($52.18 - $20.02) / $20.02 = 160.7% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $105.25 425.7% upside ($105.25 - $20.02) / $20.02 = 425.7% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $177.54 786.8% upside ($177.54 - $20.02) / $20.02 = 786.8% 31% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

23.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (24% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 48%
Implied Market Multiple 11.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 0.8% vs our 23.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 24% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $105.25 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions