Costamare Bulkers Holdings Limited logo CMDB - Costamare Bulkers Holdings Limited

Price: -- --
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 82.1% below fair value
Current Price $18.81
Bear Case $52.18 177.4% upside ($52.18 - $18.81) / $18.81 = 177.4% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $105.25 459.5% upside ($105.25 - $18.81) / $18.81 = 459.5% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $177.54 843.8% upside ($177.54 - $18.81) / $18.81 = 843.8% 31% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

23.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (24% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 48%
Implied Market Multiple 10.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) -0.1% vs our 23.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 24% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $105.25 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions