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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 34
HOLD 25
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.35 DETAILS
HIGH: $37.00
LOW: $23.00
MEDIAN: $32.00
CONSENSUS: $31.35
UPSIDE: 25.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 42.9% below fair value
Current Price $25.08
Bear Case $43.89 75.0% upside ($43.89 - $25.08) / $25.08 = 75.0% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $43.89 75.0% upside ($43.89 - $25.08) / $25.08 = 75.0% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $48.51 93.4% upside ($48.51 - $25.08) / $25.08 = 93.4% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 8.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.35 from 60 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.89 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $31.35 (from 60 analysts). Our estimate is 62% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions