CMCO - Columbus McKinnon Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$17.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$17.00
LOW:
$17.00
MEDIAN:
$17.00
CONSENSUS:
$17.00
DOWNSIDE:
4.63%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
40% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
18.7x
1.04$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.1x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.04, the base-case value is $19.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $4.37.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$17.00
Analyst Range
$17.00 – $17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
14%
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $4.37 (below our primary estimate by 78%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples