Columbus McKinnon Corporation logo CMCO - Columbus McKinnon Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $17.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $17.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $17.00
CONSENSUS: $17.00
DOWNSIDE: 4.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.3% below fair value
Current Price $17.82
Bear Case $15.56 12.7% downside ($15.56 - $17.82) / $17.82 = -12.7% $1.04 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $19.45 9.1% upside ($19.45 - $17.82) / $17.82 = 9.1% $1.04 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $23.34 30.9% upside ($23.34 - $17.82) / $17.82 = 30.9% $1.04 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.7x
1.04$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.04, the base-case value is $19.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $4.37.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $17.00
Analyst Range $17.00 – $17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 14%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $4.37 (below our primary estimate by 78%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples