Cmb.Tech N.V. logo CMBT - Cmb.Tech N.V.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.2% below fair value
Current Price $20.60
Bear Case $21.46 4.2% upside ($21.46 - $20.60) / $20.60 = 4.2% $1.79 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $26.82 30.2% upside ($26.82 - $20.60) / $20.60 = 30.2% $1.79 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $32.18 56.2% upside ($32.18 - $20.60) / $20.60 = 56.2% $1.79 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.79$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.79, the base-case value is $26.82 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 145%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
⚠ The company pays out 223% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples