Cmb.Tech N.V. logo CMBT - Cmb.Tech N.V.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 57.3% below fair value
Current Price $15.49
Bear Case $29.04 87.4% upside ($29.04 - $15.49) / $15.49 = 87.4% $2.42 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $36.30 134.3% upside ($36.30 - $15.49) / $15.49 = 134.3% $2.42 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $43.56 181.1% upside ($43.56 - $15.49) / $15.49 = 181.1% $2.42 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.42$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.42, the base-case value is $36.30 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 232%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 125% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples