Comerica Incorporated logo CMA - Comerica Incorporated

Inactive Ticker CMA is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 15
HOLD 35
SELL 11
STRONG
SELL 1
| PRICE TARGET: $80.36 DETAILS
HIGH: $114.00
LOW: $47.24
MEDIAN: $80.00
CONSENSUS: $80.36
DOWNSIDE: 9.37%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.0% below fair value
Current Price $88.67
Bear Case $64.65 27.1% downside ($64.65 - $88.67) / $88.67 = -27.1% ROTCE 7.0% → 0.51x TBV
Fair Value $92.36 4.2% upside ($92.36 - $88.67) / $88.67 = 4.2% ROTCE 9.4% → 0.90x TBV
Bull Case $120.07 35.4% upside ($120.07 - $88.67) / $88.67 = 35.4% ROTCE 10.8% → 1.14x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.4%
10.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.4%) vs. cost of equity (10.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.47x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $80.36 from 62 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $92.36 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (9.4%) is below the minimum investors require (10.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $31.47 (68% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly