CMA - Comerica Incorporated
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$103.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$114.00
LOW:
$89.00
MEDIAN:
$106.00
CONSENSUS:
$103.00
UPSIDE:
16.16%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
9.4%
10.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.4%) vs. cost of equity (10.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.47x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $103.00 from 62 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.28 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (9.4%) is below the minimum investors require (10.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $31.47 (68% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly