Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce logo CM - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 9
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $106.62 DETAILS
HIGH: $127.32
LOW: $70.00
MEDIAN: $122.55
CONSENSUS: $106.62
DOWNSIDE: 7.68%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 27.1% above fair value
Current Price $115.49
Bear Case $63.63 44.9% downside ($63.63 - $115.49) / $115.49 = -44.9% ROTCE 11.3% → 0.98x TBV
Fair Value $90.90 21.3% downside ($90.90 - $115.49) / $115.49 = -21.3% ROTCE 15.1% → 1.49x TBV
Bull Case $118.17 2.3% upside ($118.17 - $115.49) / $115.49 = 2.3% ROTCE 17.4% → 1.79x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
11.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.1%) vs. cost of equity (11.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.65x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $106.62 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.90 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7240 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly