Climb Global Solutions, Inc. logo CLMB - Climb Global Solutions, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.6% above fair value
Current Price $33.26
Bear Case $17.26 48.1% downside ($17.26 - $33.26) / $33.26 = -48.1% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $30.92 7.0% downside ($30.92 - $33.26) / $33.26 = -7.0% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $48.47 45.7% upside ($48.47 - $33.26) / $33.26 = 45.7% 27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

21.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (21% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 47%
Implied Market Multiple 53.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 22.0% vs our 21.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 21% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $30.92 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions