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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 17
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $21.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $21.00
CONSENSUS: $21.00
UPSIDE: 66.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 142.9% above fair value
Current Price $12.62
Bear Case $1.86 85.3% downside ($1.86 - $12.62) / $12.62 = -85.3% FCF $23M × 10x
Fair Value $5.20 58.8% downside ($5.20 - $12.62) / $12.62 = -58.8% FCF $29M × 13x
Bull Case $9.39 25.6% downside ($9.39 - $12.62) / $12.62 = -25.6% FCF $36M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $5.20 per share. Range: $1.86 (bear) to $9.39 (bull).

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (37 analysts) $21.00
Analyst Range $21.00 – $21.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 75%

Warnings

If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -85%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential