Cincinnati Financial Corporation logo CINF - Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 9
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $173.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $190.00
LOW: $157.00
MEDIAN: $173.50
CONSENSUS: $173.50
UPSIDE: 3.21%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 41.6% below fair value
Current Price $168.10
Bear Case $192.78 14.7% upside ($192.78 - $168.10) / $168.10 = 14.7% ROTCE 12.3% → 2.32x TBV
Fair Value $287.94 71.3% upside ($287.94 - $168.10) / $168.10 = 71.3% ROTCE 16.4% → 3.46x TBV
Bull Case $332.62 97.9% upside ($332.62 - $168.10) / $168.10 = 97.9% ROTCE 18.9% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

16.4%
7.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (16.4%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.79x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $173.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $287.94 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $173.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 88% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly