Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais logo CIG - Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $2.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $2.10
LOW: $2.10
MEDIAN: $2.10
CONSENSUS: $2.10
DOWNSIDE: 2.55%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 69.1% below fair value
Current Price $2.15
Bear Case $6.10 182.9% upside ($6.10 - $2.15) / $2.15 = 182.9% $0.44 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $6.96 223.2% upside ($6.96 - $2.15) / $2.15 = 223.2% $0.44 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $7.84 263.8% upside ($7.84 - $2.15) / $2.15 = 263.8% $0.44 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.5x
0.44$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 4.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $2.10 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.96 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 33%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $840.07 (above our primary estimate by 10166%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $2.10 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 290% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1957 USD per BRL.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples