Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais logo CIG - Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $2.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $2.10
LOW: $2.10
MEDIAN: $2.10
CONSENSUS: $2.10
DOWNSIDE: 8.70%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 60.7% below fair value
Current Price $2.30
Bear Case $5.12 122.7% upside ($5.12 - $2.30) / $2.30 = 122.7% $0.32 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $5.86 154.6% upside ($5.86 - $2.30) / $2.30 = 154.6% $0.32 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $6.59 186.4% upside ($6.59 - $2.30) / $2.30 = 186.4% $0.32 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.5x
0.32$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.32, the base-case value is $5.86 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (5 analysts) $2.10
Analyst Range $2.10 – $2.10
Divergence from AlphaVal 179%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $2.10 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 179% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1862 USD per BRL.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples