CIG - Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$2.10
DETAILS
HIGH:
$2.10
LOW:
$2.10
MEDIAN:
$2.10
CONSENSUS:
$2.10
DOWNSIDE:
8.70%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
18.5x
0.32$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.3x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.32, the base-case value is $5.86 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$2.10
Analyst Range
$2.10 – $2.10
Divergence from AlphaVal
179%
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $2.10 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 179% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1862 USD per BRL.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples