Cigna Corporation logo CI - Cigna Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 28
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $341.82 DETAILS
HIGH: $400.00
LOW: $302.00
MEDIAN: $340.00
CONSENSUS: $341.82
UPSIDE: 20.44%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.9% below fair value
Current Price $283.82
Bear Case $328.49 15.7% upside ($328.49 - $283.82) / $283.82 = 15.7% $31.05 × 11x P/E
Fair Value $410.62 44.7% upside ($410.62 - $283.82) / $283.82 = 44.7% $31.05 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $492.74 73.6% upside ($492.74 - $283.82) / $283.82 = 73.6% $31.05 × 17x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.2x
31.05$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $341.82 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $410.62 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 40%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $2107.81 (above our primary estimate by 379%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $341.82 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples