Cigna Corporation logo CI - Cigna Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 29
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $338.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $400.00
LOW: $302.00
MEDIAN: $330.00
CONSENSUS: $338.33
UPSIDE: 22.16%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.9% below fair value
Current Price $276.95
Bear Case $251.36 9.2% downside ($251.36 - $276.95) / $276.95 = -9.2% $22.17 × 11x P/E
Fair Value $314.20 13.4% upside ($314.20 - $276.95) / $276.95 = 13.4% $22.17 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $377.03 36.1% upside ($377.03 - $276.95) / $276.95 = 36.1% $22.17 × 17x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.2x
22.17$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $22.17, the base-case value is $314.20 per share. DDM cross-check: $898.13.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (39 analysts) $338.33
Analyst Range $302.00 – $400.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 7%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $898.13 (above our primary estimate by 186%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples