Charter Communications, Inc. logo CHTR - Charter Communications, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 26
HOLD 25
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $162.90 DETAILS
HIGH: $380.00
LOW: $101.00
MEDIAN: $137.50
CONSENSUS: $162.90
UPSIDE: 47.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Leveraged Infrastructure 80% confidence

Primary model: EV/EBITDA × Telecom Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 81.8% below fair value
Current Price $110.11
Bear Case $416.06 277.9% upside ($416.06 - $110.11) / $110.11 = 277.9% EBITDA $21B × 7.2x − $97B debt
Fair Value $604.91 449.4% upside ($604.91 - $110.11) / $110.11 = 449.4% EBITDA $21B × 8.4x − $97B debt
Bull Case $793.76 620.9% upside ($793.76 - $110.11) / $110.11 = 620.9% EBITDA $21B × 9.6x − $97B debt

Adjust Assumptions

8.4x

Key Value Driver

EV/EBITDA multiple (8.4x) vs. 4.6× leverage

Implied Market Multiple 5.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At 8.4x EV/EBITDA on $21B EBITDA, enterprise value is $178B. After subtracting $97B net debt, equity value is $604.91 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (56 analysts) $162.90
Analyst Range $101.00 – $380.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 271%

Warnings

⚠ Debt is 4.6x annual operating profit. Because the company carries so much debt, even small shifts in business value cause big swings in the stock price.
⚠ Only 21% of operating profit turns into actual cash for shareholders. Big investments and interest payments consume most of what the business earns.
ℹ We value this business based on total operating profit relative to total enterprise value (debt + equity). Profit-per-share metrics are unreliable when debt makes up most of the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $162.90 (from 56 analysts). Our estimate is 271% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Debt refinancing at higher rates compresses equity value quickly
  • EBITDA flatters — capex, interest, and taxes eat the cash flow
  • Cord-cutting and wireless substitution are structural headwinds for cable