CHTR - Charter Communications, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$173.88
DETAILS
HIGH:
$380.00
LOW:
$101.00
MEDIAN:
$150.00
CONSENSUS:
$173.88
UPSIDE:
9.38%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Leveraged Infrastructure
80% confidence
Primary model: EV/EBITDA × Telecom Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
8.4x
Key Value Driver
EV/EBITDA multiple (8.4x) vs. 4.6× leverage
Implied Market Multiple
5.6x
Plain-Language Summary
At 8.4x EV/EBITDA on $21B EBITDA, enterprise value is $178B. After subtracting $97B net debt, equity value is $604.91 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (56 analysts)
$173.88
Analyst Range
$101.00 – $380.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
248%
Warnings
Debt is 4.6x annual operating profit. Because the company carries so much debt, even small shifts in business value cause big swings in the stock price.
Only 21% of operating profit turns into actual cash for shareholders. Big investments and interest payments consume most of what the business earns.
We value this business based on total operating profit relative to total enterprise value (debt + equity). Profit-per-share metrics are unreliable when debt makes up most of the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $173.88 (from 56 analysts). Our estimate is 248% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Debt refinancing at higher rates compresses equity value quickly
- EBITDA flatters — capex, interest, and taxes eat the cash flow
- Cord-cutting and wireless substitution are structural headwinds for cable