Charter Communications, Inc. logo CHTR - Charter Communications, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 26
HOLD 25
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $173.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $380.00
LOW: $101.00
MEDIAN: $150.00
CONSENSUS: $173.88
UPSIDE: 9.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Leveraged Infrastructure 80% confidence

Primary model: EV/EBITDA × Telecom Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 73.7% below fair value
Current Price $158.97
Bear Case $416.06 161.7% upside ($416.06 - $158.97) / $158.97 = 161.7% EBITDA $21B × 7.2x − $97B debt
Fair Value $604.91 280.5% upside ($604.91 - $158.97) / $158.97 = 280.5% EBITDA $21B × 8.4x − $97B debt
Bull Case $793.76 399.3% upside ($793.76 - $158.97) / $158.97 = 399.3% EBITDA $21B × 9.6x − $97B debt

Adjust Assumptions

8.4x

Key Value Driver

EV/EBITDA multiple (8.4x) vs. 4.6× leverage

Implied Market Multiple 5.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At 8.4x EV/EBITDA on $21B EBITDA, enterprise value is $178B. After subtracting $97B net debt, equity value is $604.91 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (56 analysts) $173.88
Analyst Range $101.00 – $380.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 248%

Warnings

Debt is 4.6x annual operating profit. Because the company carries so much debt, even small shifts in business value cause big swings in the stock price.
Only 21% of operating profit turns into actual cash for shareholders. Big investments and interest payments consume most of what the business earns.
We value this business based on total operating profit relative to total enterprise value (debt + equity). Profit-per-share metrics are unreliable when debt makes up most of the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $173.88 (from 56 analysts). Our estimate is 248% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Debt refinancing at higher rates compresses equity value quickly
  • EBITDA flatters — capex, interest, and taxes eat the cash flow
  • Cord-cutting and wireless substitution are structural headwinds for cable