Coherus Oncology, Inc. logo CHRS - Coherus Oncology, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $6.02 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.00
LOW: $1.05
MEDIAN: $6.00
CONSENSUS: $6.02
UPSIDE: 330.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 83.4% below fair value
Current Price $1.40
Bear Case $5.62 301.2% upside ($5.62 - $1.40) / $1.40 = 301.2% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $8.42 501.4% upside ($8.42 - $1.40) / $1.40 = 501.4% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $11.23 702.3% upside ($11.23 - $1.40) / $1.40 = 702.3% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 1.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $6.02 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.42 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $6.02 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 53% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case