ChampionsGate Acquisition Corporation Class A Ordinary Share logo CHPG - ChampionsGate Acquisition Corporation Class A Ordinary Share

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 50% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 283.7% above fair value
Current Price $10.36
Bear Case $2.16 79.2% downside ($2.16 - $10.36) / $10.36 = -79.2% $0.18 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $2.70 73.9% downside ($2.70 - $10.36) / $10.36 = -73.9% $0.18 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $3.24 68.7% downside ($3.24 - $10.36) / $10.36 = -68.7% $0.18 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.18$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 57.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.18, the base-case value is $2.70 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples