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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $650.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $650.00
LOW: $650.00
MEDIAN: $650.00
CONSENSUS: $650.00
UPSIDE: 26.11%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 86.6% above fair value
Current Price $515.44
Bear Case $221.04 57.1% downside ($221.04 - $515.44) / $515.44 = -57.1% $18.42 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $276.30 46.4% downside ($276.30 - $515.44) / $515.44 = -46.4% $18.42 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $331.56 35.7% downside ($331.56 - $515.44) / $515.44 = -35.7% $18.42 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
18.42$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 28.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $18.42, the base-case value is $276.30 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (9 analysts) $650.00
Analyst Range $650.00 – $650.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 57%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $650.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples