Chemed Corporation logo CHE - Chemed Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $554.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $633.00
LOW: $475.00
MEDIAN: $554.00
CONSENSUS: $554.00
UPSIDE: 5.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 89.4% above fair value
Current Price $523.38
Bear Case $221.04 57.8% downside ($221.04 - $523.38) / $523.38 = -57.8% $18.42 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $276.30 47.2% downside ($276.30 - $523.38) / $523.38 = -47.2% $18.42 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $331.56 36.7% downside ($331.56 - $523.38) / $523.38 = -36.7% $18.42 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
18.42$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 28.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $18.42, the base-case value is $276.30 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (9 analysts) $554.00
Analyst Range $475.00 – $633.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 50%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $554.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples