CHCT - Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$17.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$17.00
LOW:
$17.00
MEDIAN:
$17.00
CONSENSUS:
$17.00
UPSIDE:
13.71%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
19.7x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.70) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
8.8x
Plain-Language Summary
At $1.70 FFO/share with a 20x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $31.09 per share. Dividend yield: 11.8%. DDM cross-check: $25.43.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$17.00
Analyst Range
$17.00 – $17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
83%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 11.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $17.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 83% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify