Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated logo CHCT - Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $20.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $18.50
CONSENSUS: $18.50
UPSIDE: 6.44%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 41.6% below fair value
Current Price $17.38
Bear Case $23.15 33.2% upside ($23.15 - $17.38) / $17.38 = 33.2% $1.70 FFO × 15x
Fair Value $29.76 71.2% upside ($29.76 - $17.38) / $17.38 = 71.2% $1.70 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $36.37 109.3% upside ($36.37 - $17.38) / $17.38 = 109.3% $1.70 FFO × 24x

Adjust Assumptions

19.7x
1.7$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.70) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 10.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.50 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.76 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 11.0% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.50 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 81% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify