Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated logo CHCT - Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $17.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $17.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $17.00
CONSENSUS: $17.00
UPSIDE: 13.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 51.9% below fair value
Current Price $14.95
Bear Case $24.73 65.4% upside ($24.73 - $14.95) / $14.95 = 65.4% $1.70 FFO × 15x
Fair Value $31.09 108.0% upside ($31.09 - $14.95) / $14.95 = 108.0% $1.70 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $37.45 150.5% upside ($37.45 - $14.95) / $14.95 = 150.5% $1.70 FFO × 24x

Adjust Assumptions

19.7x
1.7$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.70) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.70 FFO/share with a 20x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $31.09 per share. Dividend yield: 11.8%. DDM cross-check: $25.43.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $17.00
Analyst Range $17.00 – $17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 83%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 11.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $17.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 83% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify