AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag CFR as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for CFR is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value CFR?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from CFR's most recent reported fundamentals.

CFR - Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $154.13 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 28.9% below fair value

Current Price $139.38

Bear Case $127.69 8.4% downside ($127.69 - $139.38) / $139.38 = -8.4% ROTCE 10.6% → 1.91x TBV

Fair Value $195.91 40.6% upside ($195.91 - $139.38) / $139.38 = 40.6% ROTCE 14.2% → 2.94x TBV

Bull Case $236.84 69.9% upside ($236.84 - $139.38) / $139.38 = 69.9% ROTCE 16.3% → 3.55x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

14.2%

Cost of Equity

7.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.91x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $154.13 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $195.91 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $308.18 (44% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $154.13 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 39% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly