Central Garden & Pet Company logo CENT - Central Garden & Pet Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $54.00
LOW: $54.00
MEDIAN: $54.00
CONSENSUS: $54.00
UPSIDE: 23.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.0% above fair value
Current Price $43.80
Bear Case $35.70 18.5% downside ($35.70 - $43.80) / $43.80 = -18.5% $2.55 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $43.35 1.0% downside ($43.35 - $43.80) / $43.80 = -1.0% $2.55 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $51.00 16.4% upside ($51.00 - $43.80) / $43.80 = 16.4% $2.55 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
2.55$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.55, the base-case value is $43.35 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (10 analysts) $54.00
Analyst Range $54.00 – $54.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 20%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples