Central Garden & Pet Company logo CENT - Central Garden & Pet Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $54.00
LOW: $54.00
MEDIAN: $54.00
CONSENSUS: $54.00
UPSIDE: 29.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.5% below fair value
Current Price $41.83
Bear Case $35.70 14.7% downside ($35.70 - $41.83) / $41.83 = -14.7% $2.55 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $43.35 3.6% upside ($43.35 - $41.83) / $41.83 = 3.6% $2.55 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $51.00 21.9% upside ($51.00 - $41.83) / $41.83 = 21.9% $2.55 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
2.55$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.55, the base-case value is $43.35 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (10 analysts) $54.00
Analyst Range $54.00 – $54.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 20%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples