Central Garden & Pet Company logo CENT - Central Garden & Pet Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $54.00
LOW: $54.00
MEDIAN: $54.00
CONSENSUS: $54.00
UPSIDE: 21.35%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 15.8% below fair value
Current Price $44.50
Bear Case $43.52 2.2% downside ($43.52 - $44.50) / $44.50 = -2.2% $3.09 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $52.84 18.7% upside ($52.84 - $44.50) / $44.50 = 18.7% $3.09 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $62.16 39.7% upside ($62.16 - $44.50) / $44.50 = 39.7% $3.09 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
3.09$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $54.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.84 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples