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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 12
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $144.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $171.00
LOW: $123.00
MEDIAN: $147.00
CONSENSUS: $144.20
DOWNSIDE: 3.49%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 37.5% above fair value
Current Price $149.42
Bear Case $85.49 42.8% downside ($85.49 - $149.42) / $149.42 = -42.8% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $108.68 27.3% downside ($108.68 - $149.42) / $149.42 = -27.3% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $128.96 13.7% downside ($128.96 - $149.42) / $149.42 = -13.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 19.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 8.8% vs our 5.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $108.68 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $144.20
Analyst Range $123.00 – $171.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 25%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions