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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 10
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $148.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $180.00
LOW: $123.00
MEDIAN: $147.00
CONSENSUS: $148.20
UPSIDE: 33.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.6% above fair value
Current Price $110.82
Bear Case $79.54 28.2% downside ($79.54 - $110.82) / $110.82 = -28.2% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $103.02 7.0% downside ($103.02 - $110.82) / $110.82 = -7.0% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $123.56 11.5% upside ($123.56 - $110.82) / $110.82 = 11.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 18.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $148.20 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $103.02 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $148.20 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions