CDW Corporation logo CDW - CDW Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 12
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $150.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $180.00
LOW: $123.00
MEDIAN: $148.50
CONSENSUS: $150.00
UPSIDE: 3.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 39.5% above fair value
Current Price $144.35
Bear Case $79.88 44.7% downside ($79.88 - $144.35) / $144.35 = -44.7% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $103.47 28.3% downside ($103.47 - $144.35) / $144.35 = -28.3% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $124.10 14.0% downside ($124.10 - $144.35) / $144.35 = -14.0% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 22.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.4% vs our 5.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $150.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $103.47 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $150.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions