AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies COPT Defense Properties as a Real Estate Investment Trust business and values it using P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag CDP as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is COPT Defense Properties's fair value?

Fair value for CDP comes from a P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Real Estate Investment Trust classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value CDP?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. CDP was classified as Real Estate Investment Trust and is valued using P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple, built from CDP's most recent reported fundamentals.

CDP - COPT Defense Properties

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $40.33 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 4.1% above fair value

Current Price $35.46

Bear Case $26.81 24.4% downside ($26.81 - $35.46) / $35.46 = -24.4% $2.77 FFO × 11x

Fair Value $34.06 4.0% downside ($34.06 - $35.46) / $35.46 = -4.0% $2.77 FFO × 14x

Bull Case $41.31 16.5% upside ($41.31 - $35.46) / $35.46 = 16.5% $2.77 FFO × 17x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

13.7x

FFO per Share

2.77$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.77) × office P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 12.8x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.77 FFO/share with a 14x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $34.06 per share. Dividend yield: 3.6%. DDM cross-check: $25.18.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $40.33

Analyst Range $38.00 – $42.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 16%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $25.18 (26% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify