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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $39.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $37.50
CONSENSUS: $37.50
UPSIDE: 7.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.1% below fair value
Current Price $34.91
Bear Case $27.80 20.4% downside ($27.80 - $34.91) / $34.91 = -20.4% ROTCE 6.6% → 0.72x TBV
Fair Value $39.72 13.8% upside ($39.72 - $34.91) / $34.91 = 13.8% ROTCE 8.8% → 1.33x TBV
Bull Case $51.64 47.9% upside ($51.64 - $34.91) / $34.91 = 47.9% ROTCE 10.2% → 1.69x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
7.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.38x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.8% vs. 7.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.33x on $25.23 tangible book, implying $39.72 per share. DDM cross-check: $12.16.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.16 (69% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly