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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $34.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $34.00
MEDIAN: $34.50
CONSENSUS: $34.50
UPSIDE: 12.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 22.8% below fair value
Current Price $30.65
Bear Case $27.80 9.3% downside ($27.80 - $30.65) / $30.65 = -9.3% ROTCE 6.6% → 0.68x TBV
Fair Value $39.72 29.6% upside ($39.72 - $30.65) / $30.65 = 29.6% ROTCE 8.8% → 1.26x TBV
Bull Case $51.64 68.5% upside ($51.64 - $30.65) / $30.65 = 68.5% ROTCE 10.2% → 1.60x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
7.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.22x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.8% vs. 7.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.26x on $25.22 tangible book, implying $39.72 per share. DDM cross-check: $11.37.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $11.37 (71% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly