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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $39.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $38.00
CONSENSUS: $37.67
UPSIDE: 9.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 13.0% below fair value
Current Price $34.54
Bear Case $27.80 19.5% downside ($27.80 - $34.54) / $34.54 = -19.5% ROTCE 6.6% → 0.71x TBV
Fair Value $39.72 15.0% upside ($39.72 - $34.54) / $34.54 = 15.0% ROTCE 8.8% → 1.31x TBV
Bull Case $51.64 49.5% upside ($51.64 - $34.54) / $34.54 = 49.5% ROTCE 10.2% → 1.67x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
7.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (7.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.37x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.8% vs. 7.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.31x on $25.23 tangible book, implying $39.72 per share. DDM cross-check: $12.05.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $12.05 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly