CCNE - CNB Financial Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$37.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$39.00
LOW:
$36.00
MEDIAN:
$37.50
CONSENSUS:
$37.50
UPSIDE:
7.42%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
8.8%
7.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.8%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.38x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 8.8% vs. 7.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.33x on $25.23 tangible book, implying $39.72 per share. DDM cross-check: $12.16.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.16 (69% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly