Crown Holdings, Inc. logo CCK - Crown Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $125.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $130.00
LOW: $121.00
MEDIAN: $125.50
CONSENSUS: $125.50
UPSIDE: 5.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 23.8% above fair value
Current Price $118.44
Bear Case $76.56 35.4% downside ($76.56 - $118.44) / $118.44 = -35.4% $6.38 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $95.70 19.2% downside ($95.70 - $118.44) / $118.44 = -19.2% $6.38 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $114.84 3.0% downside ($114.84 - $118.44) / $118.44 = -3.0% $6.38 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.38$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.38, the base-case value is $95.70 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (25 analysts) $125.50
Analyst Range $121.00 – $130.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 24%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples