Crown Castle Inc. logo CCI - Crown Castle Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 24
HOLD 21
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $88.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $84.00
MEDIAN: $85.00
CONSENSUS: $88.00
UPSIDE: 6.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 17.4% above fair value
Current Price $82.26
Bear Case $57.09 30.6% downside ($57.09 - $82.26) / $82.26 = -30.6% $2.59 FFO × 22x
Fair Value $70.06 14.8% downside ($70.06 - $82.26) / $82.26 = -14.8% $2.59 FFO × 27x
Bull Case $83.04 0.9% upside ($83.04 - $82.26) / $82.26 = 0.9% $2.59 FFO × 32x

Adjust Assumptions

27.0x
2.59$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.59) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 31.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.59 FFO/share with a 27x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $70.06 per share. Dividend yield: 5.2%. DDM cross-check: $79.20.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (47 analysts) $88.00
Analyst Range $84.00 – $95.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 20%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 5.2% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify