Crown Castle Inc. logo CCI - Crown Castle Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 22
HOLD 23
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $100.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $115.00
LOW: $91.00
MEDIAN: $95.00
CONSENSUS: $100.33
UPSIDE: 25.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.9% above fair value
Current Price $79.84
Bear Case $64.50 19.2% downside ($64.50 - $79.84) / $79.84 = -19.2% $2.60 FFO × 22x
Fair Value $79.16 0.8% downside ($79.16 - $79.84) / $79.84 = -0.8% $2.60 FFO × 27x
Bull Case $93.82 17.5% upside ($93.82 - $79.84) / $79.84 = 17.5% $2.60 FFO × 32x

Adjust Assumptions

27.0x
2.6$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.60) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 30.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $100.33 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $79.16 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $100.33 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify