Crown Castle Inc. logo CCI - Crown Castle Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 24
HOLD 22
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $89.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $84.00
MEDIAN: $89.50
CONSENSUS: $89.50
UPSIDE: 17.55%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 8.8% above fair value
Current Price $76.14
Bear Case $57.04 25.1% downside ($57.04 - $76.14) / $76.14 = -25.1% $2.59 FFO × 22x
Fair Value $70.00 8.1% downside ($70.00 - $76.14) / $76.14 = -8.1% $2.59 FFO × 27x
Bull Case $82.97 9.0% upside ($82.97 - $76.14) / $76.14 = 9.0% $2.59 FFO × 32x

Adjust Assumptions

27.0x
2.59$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.59) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 29.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.59 FFO/share with a 27x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $70.00 per share. Dividend yield: 5.6%. DDM cross-check: $79.20.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (47 analysts) $89.50
Analyst Range $84.00 – $95.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 22%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.6% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify