Crown Castle Inc. logo CCI - Crown Castle Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 22
HOLD 23
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $105.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $127.00
LOW: $91.00
MEDIAN: $101.00
CONSENSUS: $105.40
UPSIDE: 15.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 12.9% above fair value
Current Price $91.06
Bear Case $65.74 27.8% downside ($65.74 - $91.06) / $91.06 = -27.8% $2.60 FFO × 22x
Fair Value $80.68 11.4% downside ($80.68 - $91.06) / $91.06 = -11.4% $2.60 FFO × 27x
Bull Case $95.62 5.0% upside ($95.62 - $91.06) / $91.06 = 5.0% $2.60 FFO × 32x

Adjust Assumptions

27.0x
2.6$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.60) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 35.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $105.40 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $80.68 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $105.40 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify