CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc. logo CCC - CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $8.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $8.00
LOW: $8.00
MEDIAN: $8.00
CONSENSUS: $8.00
UPSIDE: 30.72%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current FCF × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 160.1% above fair value
Current Price $6.12
Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $6.12) / $6.12 = -100.0% FCF continues to decline, 4x multiple
Fair Value $2.35 61.6% downside ($2.35 - $6.12) / $6.12 = -61.6% Current FCF stabilizes, 6x multiple
Bull Case $6.71 9.6% upside ($6.71 - $6.12) / $6.12 = 9.6% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 8x

Adjust Assumptions

6.0x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 19.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current FCF × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.00 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.35 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.00 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case