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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $20.00
CONSENSUS: $21.88
UPSIDE: 38.74%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 47.2% above fair value
Current Price $15.77
Bear Case $8.57 45.7% downside ($8.57 - $15.77) / $15.77 = -45.7% $0.71 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $10.71 32.1% downside ($10.71 - $15.77) / $15.77 = -32.1% $0.71 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $12.85 18.5% downside ($12.85 - $15.77) / $15.77 = -18.5% $0.71 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.71$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.71, the base-case value is $10.71 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (20 analysts) $21.88
Analyst Range $17.00 – $30.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 51%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $21.88 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 45% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples