CBIZ, Inc. logo CBZ - CBIZ, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $43.50
CONSENSUS: $44.75
DOWNSIDE: 18.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 88.4% above fair value
Current Price $54.84
Bear Case $22.17 59.6% downside ($22.17 - $54.84) / $54.84 = -59.6% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $29.10 46.9% downside ($29.10 - $54.84) / $54.84 = -46.9% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $35.80 34.7% downside ($35.80 - $54.84) / $54.84 = -34.7% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

4.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 20.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.2% vs our 4.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $29.10 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (5 analysts) $44.75
Analyst Range $37.00 – $55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 35%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $44.75 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions