CBRE Group, Inc. logo CBRE - CBRE Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $178.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $185.00
LOW: $169.00
MEDIAN: $179.00
CONSENSUS: $178.00
UPSIDE: 26.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 75% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 32.4% above fair value
Current Price $140.98
Bear Case $85.20 39.6% downside ($85.20 - $140.98) / $140.98 = -39.6% $4.66 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $106.51 24.5% downside ($106.51 - $140.98) / $140.98 = -24.5% $4.66 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $127.80 9.3% downside ($127.80 - $140.98) / $140.98 = -9.3% $4.66 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.7x
4.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 30.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $178.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $106.51 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $178.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples