CBRE Group, Inc. logo CBRE - CBRE Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $179.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $183.00
LOW: $175.00
MEDIAN: $179.00
CONSENSUS: $179.00
UPSIDE: 25.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 75% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 108.1% above fair value
Current Price $142.08
Bear Case $54.61 61.6% downside ($54.61 - $142.08) / $142.08 = -61.6% $3.85 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $68.26 52.0% downside ($68.26 - $142.08) / $142.08 = -52.0% $3.85 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $81.91 42.3% downside ($81.91 - $142.08) / $142.08 = -42.3% $3.85 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.7x
3.85$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 36.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.85, the base-case value is $68.26 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (20 analysts) $179.00
Analyst Range $175.00 – $183.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 62%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $179.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples