Cboe Global Markets, Inc. logo CBOE - Cboe Global Markets, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 2
BUY 13
HOLD 12
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $313.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $347.00
LOW: $258.00
MEDIAN: $318.50
CONSENSUS: $313.33
UPSIDE: 16.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 31.5% above fair value
Current Price $268.07
Bear Case $142.66 46.8% downside ($142.66 - $268.07) / $268.07 = -46.8% ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $203.80 24.0% downside ($203.80 - $268.07) / $268.07 = -24.0% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $264.94 1.2% downside ($264.94 - $268.07) / $268.07 = -1.2% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

159.3%
6.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (159.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 40.62x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $313.33 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $203.80 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $313.33 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly