Cboe Global Markets, Inc. logo CBOE - Cboe Global Markets, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
2
BUY 12
HOLD 13
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $317.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $356.00
LOW: $258.00
MEDIAN: $320.00
CONSENSUS: $317.00
UPSIDE: 2.11%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 97.9% above fair value
Current Price $310.45
Bear Case $109.80 64.6% downside ($109.80 - $310.45) / $310.45 = -64.6% ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $156.86 49.5% downside ($156.86 - $310.45) / $310.45 = -49.5% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $203.92 34.3% downside ($203.92 - $310.45) / $310.45 = -34.3% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

159.3%
6.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (159.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 47.05x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 159.3% vs. 6.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $6.60 tangible book, implying $156.86 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (31 analysts) $317.00
Analyst Range $258.00 – $356.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 51%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $317.00 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly