Cboe Global Markets, Inc. logo CBOE - Cboe Global Markets, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 2
BUY 12
HOLD 13
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $314.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $340.00
LOW: $273.00
MEDIAN: $321.00
CONSENSUS: $314.40
DOWNSIDE: 12.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 75.1% above fair value
Current Price $357.35
Bear Case $142.88 60.0% downside ($142.88 - $357.35) / $357.35 = -60.0% ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $204.12 42.9% downside ($204.12 - $357.35) / $357.35 = -42.9% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $265.36 25.7% downside ($265.36 - $357.35) / $357.35 = -25.7% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

159.3%
6.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (159.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 54.15x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $314.40 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $204.12 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $314.40 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly