Cboe Global Markets, Inc. logo CBOE - Cboe Global Markets, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
2
BUY 14
HOLD 12
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $324.71 DETAILS
HIGH: $358.00
LOW: $300.00
MEDIAN: $320.00
CONSENSUS: $324.71
UPSIDE: 9.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 89.8% above fair value
Current Price $297.76
Bear Case $109.80 63.1% downside ($109.80 - $297.76) / $297.76 = -63.1% ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $156.86 47.3% downside ($156.86 - $297.76) / $297.76 = -47.3% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $203.92 31.5% downside ($203.92 - $297.76) / $297.76 = -31.5% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

159.3%
6.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (159.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 45.12x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 159.3% vs. 6.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $6.60 tangible book, implying $156.86 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (31 analysts) $324.71
Analyst Range $300.00 – $358.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 52%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $324.71 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly